A while back, we did a blog post about hurricane preparedness and, in that post, we put up a big table showing all of the hurricane data we have from 1851 to 2024 (the most recent year for which the NOAA has published Atlantic Hurricane data as of the time of this writing). We also cross-referenced that data with El Nino vs La Nina data to break down which years had hurricanes hit Florida during El Nino years, La Nina years, and years where there were “neutral” conditions between the Pacific and Atlantic.
Traditional wisdom makes the statement that homeowners on the East Coast of the USA have less to worry about during El Nino years compared to La Nina years.
On the surface, it’s a sound assumption, but the data doesn’t bear that assumption out for Floridian homeowners.
You might be wondering what the difference between El Nino vs La Nina is and how that impacts weather conditions in Florida. Let’s go over the meaning of these two terms, then analyze which one has proven more hazardous for Florida:
What Is El Nino?
To understand El Niño, it’s important to first understand a little bit about Pacific ocean currents and weather.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Pacific ocean’s normal weather conditions have “trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia.”
If the warm water is whisked away, what replaces it? Cold water. Per the NOAA: “cold water rises from the depths — a process called upwelling.” So warm water flows towards Asia on most normal years.
El Nino breaks this pattern. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle alters the way the water flows, changing weather patterns for the U.S.
During El Nino, trade winds push east, creating vertical wind shear conditions that can break up storm formation. Additionally, El Nino increases sinking motion and atmospheric stability (Source: NOAA). This inhibits hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
Because El Nino conditions inhibit hurricane formation in the Atlantic, many people assume that El Nino years mean fewer hurricanes for Florida.
What Is La Nina?
La Nina is often referred to as the polar opposite of El Nino. During a La Nina event, NOAA states that: “Over the Atlantic basin, the anomalous upper-level ridge is associated with weaker upper- and lower-level winds, both of which reduce the vertical wind shear.”
This weaker wind shear reduces trade wind interference with storm formation. As a result, storm activity and severity increase. Or, at least, that’s what the description of El Nino vs La Nina phenomena state.
But, does the data bear it out?
El Nino vs La Nina and Florida Hurricanes: The Facts
When we cross-referenced a list of all storms affecting the state of Florida with a list of El Nino vs La Nina years, a surprising pattern emerged.
The common theory is that El Nino events reduce storm formation and La Nina events promote it. So, we should see more hurricanes during La Nina years than El Nino years… However, the opposite is true.
After reviewing data from 128 hurricanes (and one particularly impactful tropical storm), The results are in:
- 21 hurricanes occurred during El Nino years.
- Of these, there were:
- Eight Category 1 storms
- Seven Category 2 storms
- Three Category 3 storms
- Two Category 4 storms
- One Category 5 storm
- Of these, there were:
- 13 major storms occurred during La Nina years.
- Of these, there were:
- Five Category 1 storms
- Two Category 2 storms
- Three Category 3 storms
- Two Category 4 storms
- No Category 5 storms (yet)
- One major Tropical Storm
- Of these, there were:
Florida has experienced nearly twice as many hurricanes during recorded El Nino years than it has during La Nina years.
Of the El Nino event storms, roughly 28.5% (6 of 21) achieved “major hurricane” status, being category 3 or higher. For La Nina, the percentage of major hurricanes was around 38% (5 of 13).
So, while Florida actually experienced more hurricanes during El Nino, La Nina storms tend to be stronger on average (though none on the record so far have been category 5)
Since we don’t have records of El Nino vs La Nina conditions prior to 1896, there are 37 recorded hurricanes for which we don’t know if they happened during one set of weather conditions or the other.
How Damaging Are El Nino vs La Nina Storms?
So, if we see more storms during El Nino years, are they a bigger threat than La Nina event storms or a smaller threat? Let’s compare some of the ten most damaging storms from each cycle:
El Nino Storms:
| Year | Name | Category | Damages | CPI Adjusted* |
| 1992 | Andrew | 5 | $26,000,000,000 | $62,104,048,467 |
| 2016 | Matthew | 2 | $6,000,000,000 | $8,377,830,646 |
| 1995 | Opal | 3 | $2,100,000,000 | $4,617,836,614 |
| 1995 | Erin | 2 | $700,000,000 | $1,539,278,871 |
| 1966 | Inez | 2 | $225,000,000 | $2,327,243,055 |
| 1966 | Alma | 3 | $210,000,000 | $2,172,093,518 |
| 1998 | Georges | 2 | $200,000,000 | $566,564,666 |
| 1926 | Great Miami | 4 | $106,000,000 | $2,006,951,299 |
| 2016 | Hermine | 1 | $80,000,000 | $111,704,408 |
| 1998 | Earl | 1 | $79,000,000 | $162,421,576 |
| Total: | N/A | N/A | $35,700,000,000 | $83,985,973,120 |
La Nina Storms
| Year | Name | Category | Damages | CPI Adjusted* |
| 2022 | Ian | 4 | $50,000,000,000 | $57,255,642,309 |
| 2022 | Nicole | Tropical Storm | $1,100,000,000 | $1,259,624,130 |
| 1999 | Irene | 2 | $600,000,000 | $1,206,925,570 |
| 1950 | King | 4 | $32,000,000 | $444,976,597 |
| 1956 | Flossy | 1 | $27,774,000 | $342,195,080 |
| 1950 | Easy | 3 | $3,300,000 | $45,888,211 |
| 1917 | Unnamed | 3 | $2,900,000 | $75,926,304 |
| 1950 | Baker | 1 | $2,550,000 | $35,459,072 |
| 1909** | Unnamed | 3 | $1,000,000 | $33,850,808 |
| 1910** | Unnamed | 2 | $360,000 | $12,186,290 |
| Total: | N/A | N/A | $51,769,884,000 | $60,712,674,371 |
*CPI-Adjusted figures based on May 2026 data and created using an inflation calculator tool.
**For the last two unnamed hurricanes in the La Nina table, the CPI inflation calculator only pulls data from 1913 onward. So, the inflation figures are based on 1913 to 2026 inflation rates.
It’s important to compare how the raw figures compare to their Consumer Price Index (CPI) adjusted data. Some storms from earlier decades have a much higher cost in today’s money than more contemporary storms.
For example, the Great Miami storm of 1926’s $106 million cost would be over $2 billion today. While still well below Ian and Andrew’s massive totals, that’s almost four times what the CPI-adjusted cost of Georges is, even though Georges’ cost was $200 million at the time it happened.
Also, the figure for Hurricane Ian is a “low-ball” number, as some sources put the total cost of the damage much higher. After CPI adjustment, its low-ball figure is comparable to Hurricane Andrew from 1992.
If you look at the numbers before adjusting for CPI, the cost of the ten most devastating La Nina storms is significantly more than the cost of the ten worst El Nino hurricanes. However, when adjusting for the Consumer Price Index, the El Nino storms cost more on average.
What’s the Takeaway for El Nino vs La Nina?
Why did we analyze all of this data? What does it mean?
The short answer is that we wanted to highlight that it being an El Nino year doesn’t mean that Florida’s in the clear. We actually see more hurricanes during these years than we do during the supposed “higher risk” La Nina seasons.
This is why it’s important to ensure that your home and your family are prepared for a major hurricane to hit Florida regardless of El Nino, La Nina, or even neutral conditions.
A good place to start is by making wind mitigation upgrades to your home. Such as installing impact-rated windows and doors in every exterior opening of your house. Impact-rated fenestration helps protect your home from the wind, rain, and flying debris major hurricanes can bring, keeping your home safe even during the height of hurricane season.
Reach out to the impact window and door installation experts today to get started!
